Are the markets too convinced of a Trump victory?
| Published date | 29 October 2024 |
| Publication title | Irish Times (Dublin, Ireland) |
Truth Social’s stock price may not be the best indicator, given it is a meme stock prone to wild swings, but Druckenmiller is probably right in saying markets increasingly envisage a Trump victory. Prediction market Polymarket indicates Trump has a 62 per cent chance of victory
There have been allegations of potential manipulation on Polymarket to favour Trump, but this seems unlikely, given other betting markets offer similar odds. Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t assume a Trump victory is inevitable...
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