ECB's Simkus wants half-point July hike as option if data worsens

• Published date: 29 June 2022

Mr Simkus joined his ECB colleague Martins Kazaks in arguing that the baseline option for a quarter-point hike at the July meeting - when policy makers are set to lift borrowing costs for the first time in more than a decade - isn't set in stone as record inflation must be fought "decisively

"Of course we should see some change in the data, some change in relation to what we have seen at the beginning of June, Mr Simkus said in an interview in Sintra, Portugal. "But if we see this change in data that points to the persistence of inflation, to its acceleration, 50 basis points should be a policy option for July.

Mr Simkus spoke on the sidelines of the ECB's annual retreat, where officials are meeting against a backdrop of surging prices, threats to economic growth and the possibility of energy rationing as Russia cuts supplies.

President Christine Lagarde said Tuesday in a speech that policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle inflation if warranted, echoing the urgency of other central banks around the globe that have been far more aggressive on rates.

"With these levels of inflation and inflation being more and more broad-based, with wages growing in the euro area, we should move decisively toward monetary-policy normalization, said Mr Simkus, who heads Lithuania's central bank. Risks to the outlook for prices are skewed to the upside, he said.

Inflation is driven to a large extent by energy and food costs linked to the war in Ukraine. But it's broadening, and economists predict euro-zone data due Friday will show another pickup, to 8.5%, in June.

After recent readings consistently surpassed estimates, Mr Simkus said "I would be surprised not to be surprised by the next one. - Bloomberg

With the first rate hike...