Geo-Engineering the Climate: A Preliminary Examination of International Governance Challenges and Opportunities

• Author: Kevin Keane
• Position: Alumnus of Trinity College Dublin
• Pages: 56-86

© 2020 Kevin Keane and Dublin University Law Society

GEO-ENGINEERING THE CLIMATE: A PRELIMINARY

EXAMINATION OF INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

KEVIN KEANE*

‘Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to

understand more, so that we may fear less.’

- Marie Curie

Introduction

Geo-engineering has been the subject of debate and controversy for over

a century. As early as 1841, American meteorologist James Pollard Epsy

published The Philosophy of Storms, in which he claimed to have discovered

a method through which ‘rain may be produced artificially in time of

drought’.1 In the early 20th century, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius

became the first scientist to posit that increased CO2 levels would impact

the atmosphere. He suggested in 1908 that, in response to this, atmospheric

levels of ‘carbonic acid’ should be increased so that ‘we may hope to enjoy

ages with more equitable and better climates’.

2

Despite the work of Epsy, Arrhenius and others, the consideration

of geo-engineering as a serious response to global warming is a relatively

new development. Climate scientist David Keith recalls that at the

beginning of his career the topic ‘could hardly be discussed in polite

scientific company and was verboten in environmental circles’.

3

That

position is changing rapidly, due to advances in technical capacity and

* Kevin Keane is an alumnus of Trinity College Dublin. He graduated in 2017 with an

Honours degree in law. He is currently pursuing his Masters in Public International Law in

Utrecht University, specialising in Environmental Law. The author would like to thank the

Editorial Board for their generous assistance with this article, as well as the many members

of his friends and family who gave their time and input throughout the process..

1 James P Epsy, The Philosophy of Storms (CC Little and J Brown 1841).

2

Andrew Calbery, The Fight Against Geoengineering (Friesen Press 2017).

3

Robert Olsen, ‘Soft Geo-engineering: A Gentler Approach to Addressing Climate Change’

(2012) 54 Environment: Science & Policy for Sustainable Development.

2020] Geo-engineering the Climate

57

the reality that the global community is running out of time and options

in our response to increasing emissions and a warming Earth.

4

If geo-engineering is ultimately relied upon as an element of the

response to global warming, it will profoundly impact the entire

international community. If implemented successfully, it may form an

integral part in the effort to hold the increase in global average

temperatures to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’, as laid out in

the 2015 Paris Agreement.

5

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) has acknowledged that in order to achieve the more

ambitious target of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C, the

application of some form of geo-engineering will be unavoidable.

6

However, the potential unintended consequences of geo-engineering, or

‘nasty surprises’,

7

as Bodansky describes them, have the capacity to cause

irreversible and disastrous damage to the environment.

Geo-engineering is an umbrella term that covers a multitude of measures,

each with varying degrees of risk, effectiveness, cost, and technical

readiness. An overview of a representative selection of these measures will

be provided in Section I.

To date, the primary international law response to climate change

has been to negotiate international instruments that seek to limit

emissions, beginning with the Stockholm Declaration and culminating

most recently in the Paris Agreement in 2015. Although international

environmental law has achieved some significant victories in curbing

emissions of certain pollutants – most notably the Montreal Protocol’s

success in phasing out the production of ozone-depleting substances

8

–

these efforts have not been successfully applied to the effective limiting of

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. These efforts will be analysed in further

detail in Section II. The failure of these attempts to date has contributed to

the IPCC’s conclusions that some form of geo-engineering will have to be

incorporated into future climate change mitigation strategies.

9

International law will have an important role to play in regulating and

governing geo-engineering, either in seeking to restrict its development,

4

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C, Summary for

Policymakers’ (IPCC 2018).

5

Paris Agreement (entered into force 4 November 2016) art 2(a).

6

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (n 4).

7

Daniel Bodansky, ‘The Who, What and Wherefore of Geo-engineering Governance’ (2013)

221 Climatic Change 539.

8

Donald Kaniaru, The Montreal Protocol: Celebrating 20 Years of Environmental Progress

(UNEP/Earth Print, 2007).

9

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (n 4).