Asylum application predictions

• Published date: 15 April 2024
• Publication title: Irish Times (Dublin, Ireland)

Development economists, who study migration patterns, use a simple function to estimate whether migration is likely to increase, decrease or stay the same. All else remaining equal, in the presence of a significant income gap between country A and country B, migration will accelerate, until the income gap is significantly closed. The reason for this is the diaspora effect. When there is no diaspora of migrants from country B in country A, the costs of migration (finding a house, a job, etc) are significantly higher and often prohibitive to would-be migrants. As diasporas grow, these costs reduce, and this in turn encourages more migration

Politicians who cite “global...